July 20, 2026
The Alliance for Cuba Engagement and Respect (ACERE) warns that the Trump administration is using sweeping, unsubstantiated —or simply false— national security claims to justify an unprecedented escalation of its campaign against Cuba, raising serious concerns that these allegations could be used to support military action without adequate public scrutiny. Today, the State Department released a report[i] that reads less like a national security assessment than an ideological manifesto intended to rally political support for continued escalation—even military intervention—against Cuba.
Recent reporting and analysis suggest that the Trump administration is planning a military action in Cuba —including a targeted attack with missiles and drones, but also an Army-led air assault involving thousands of U.S. soldiers—in the near future, possible this summer or before the midterm elections.[ii] This follows reconnaissance missions and naval operations, reiterated threats by President Trump and Secretary Rubio, and obscure polls and reports that can be used to justify a military action against Cuba.[iii]
Thus far, there has been a near-total absence of media and congressional scrutiny of the Trump administration’s claims used to justify its maximum-pressure and regime-change policy toward Cuba. Yet Executive Orders 14380 and 14404—which declare Cuba an “unusual and extraordinary threat” to U.S. national security and foreign policy—together with the accompanying White House fact sheets and subsequent official statements, fail to present intelligence assessments, investigative findings, or other factual documentation demonstrating that Cuba poses an imminent or extraordinary threat to the United States. Such a determination is among the most consequential a President can make under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) and therefore requires compelling evidence.
The State Department’s report, Cuba: The Capital of 21st Century Communism, released today, offers an unpersuasive justification for the maximum-pressure policy championed by Secretary Rubio—a policy that has contributed to a severe humanitarian crisis just ninety miles from U.S. shores while reducing opportunities for cooperation on migration, counter-narcotics, law enforcement, and regional security.[iv] Far from demonstrating that Cuba constitutes an “unusual and extraordinary threat” under the IEEPA, the report relies largely on broad assertions and ideological arguments rather than verifiable evidence, at a time when domestic and international opposition to U.S. Cuba policy is growing. [v] It also contradicts the administration’s own portrayal of Cuba as a “failed state” by simultaneously attributing to Havana an extraordinary capacity to shape political developments throughout Latin America and even within the United States.
ACERE therefore urges Congress to require the administration to produce the evidence necessary to justify its extraordinary national emergency declaration and any further escalation toward military action. We call on journalists, Members of Congress, and the broader policy community to subject the administration’s national security claims regarding Cuba to rigorous scrutiny rather than repeating them uncritically. Allegations used to justify extraordinary emergency powers—or potentially military action—should be supported by publicly available evidence, not ideological manifestos, political rhetoric, or anonymous leaks to sympathetic journalists. No respected military, intelligence, or defense analyst has publicly concluded that Cuba poses an imminent military threat to the United States. The burden of proof rests squarely with the Trump administration—and especially with the Department of State. Before asking the American people to support yet another military intervention, it must answer a simple question: What evidence justifies putting U.S. service members at risk and undermining America’s strategic interests?
For more information, contact: allianceforcuba@acere.org .
Notes:
[i] “Cuba: The Capital of 21st Century Communism,” Department of State, July 20, 2026, https://www.state.gov/cuba-the-capital-of-21st-century-communism/
[ii] “Senior defense officials looking at Cuba military options,” July 15, 2026 https://www.cbsnews.com/news/cuba-military-options-pentagon;
[iii] ACERE Policy Insight: “A Military Action Against Cuba Seems Imminent,” ACERE Newsletter Issue No. 26 – April 2026, https://acere.org/acere-insights-issue-no-26
[iv] ACERE Statement: “ACERE Stresses That U.S. Policy Is Causing Blackouts and Deaths in Cuba,” July 14, 2026, https://acere.org/acere-stresses-that-u-s-policy-is-causing-blackouts-and-deaths-in-cuba/
[v] ACERE Statement: “ACERE Welcomes Long-Overdue Congressional Oversight of U.S. Cuba Policy,” July 15, 2026, https://acere.org/acere-welcomes-long-overdue-congressional-oversight-of-u-s-cuba-policy and ACERE Press Release: “U.N. Emergency Debate Highlights Global Opposition to U.S. Fuel Blockade and Sanctions Against Cuba, as Humanitarian Crisis Deepens,” July 7, 2026, https://acere.org/u-n-debate-highlights-global-opposition-to-u-s-fuel-blockade.
