March 28, 2026
The Alliance for Cuba Engagement and Respect (ACERE) cautions that recent public statements and actions by the Trump administration regarding Cuba have sharply escalated tensions in the U.S.-Cuba relationship and raised serious concerns about the risk of direct military confrontation. Despite being engaged in diplomatic conversations with the Cuban government, President Trump said “Cuba is next” during a speech in Miami on March 27, 2026; following earlier remarks in March in which he said he expected to have the “honor” of “taking Cuba in some form.”[i] Secretary of State Marco Rubio has adamantly called for regime change in Cuba, defending the need for Cuba to change its current leadership and overhaul its political and constitutional system in order to relax U.S. current extreme pressure policies.[ii]
These declarations were not isolated comments. They came as part of a new broader pressure campaign launched on January 29, 2026, when the White House issued an executive order declaring the Government of Cuba an “unusual and extraordinary threat” to U.S. national security and authorizing measures targeting countries that provide oil to the island.[iii] The administration’s own fact sheet made clear that the objective was to intensify pressure through economic coercion.[iv]
The oil blockade has been considered an act of war that violates not only the sovereignty of Cuba but also of all other countries who might want to sell or donate oil to Cuba, and has already triggered alarm well beyond Havana. On February 4, the U.N. Secretary-General’s spokesperson said the Secretary-General was “extremely concerned about the humanitarian situation” in Cuba and warned that conditions would worsen “if not collapse” if the country’s oil needs went unmet.[v] In late March, the humanitarian “Nuestra America” convoy organized by hundreds of organizations from the U.S. and more than 30 countries were delivering food, medicine, baby formula, solar panels, and other essential supplies to Cuba in response to shortages worsened by the strengthening of the U.S. blockade.[vi]
Concern over military escalation has also emerged inside the United States. So far, three legislations have been introduced aiming to block the use of federal funds for military force in or against Cuba without congressional authorization.[vii] That concern has only intensified as the administration’s rhetoric has unfolded alongside an increasingly militarized regional environment.
On March 25, 2026, the U.S. military struck a vessel in the Caribbean, killing four people, and U.S. strikes on suspected drug-trafficking boats in the Caribbean and Eastern Pacific had already killed 157 people since late 2025.[viii] There are five warships and around 10,000 troops and multiple naval strike groups stationed in the Caribbean, primarily centered around Operation Southern Spear, a major initiative launched to dismantle drug cartels and “narco-terrorist” organizations.[ix] Whatever the legal justifications offered for those operations and military presence in the Caribbean, their proximity to Cuba and the fact that similar strikes were conducted as part of the military operation in Venezuela, makes clear that threats involving Cuba are being issued in a region where U.S. military force is already being actively used at sea.
Evidence of the humanitarian consequences of the administration’s Cuba policy is mounting. No fuel entered Cuba for almost four months, resulting in rationed fuel, increased daily blackouts, electrical grid collapses, reduced health, education and public services, scarcer food, inflation. Despite an accelerated uptake of solar and renewable energy solutions for energy generation and transportation, without oil shipments coming in soon, this situation is pushing many Cubans to a breaking point.[x]
The effects have been especially severe in the health sector, which requires energy and transportation logistics that rely on fuel. Cuba’s health system has been further strained by shortages of medicine, gloves, antibiotics, water, and electricity, with more than 96,000 patients awaiting surgery, including 11,000 children, and 32,000 pregnant women potentially unable to receive the minimum recommended ultrasound care. Cuban health officials had acknowledged worsening infection rates and declining survival outcomes amid supply shortages, highlighting the risk that preventable illness and avoidable deaths may rise under conditions of prolonged deprivation.[xi]
This humanitarian crisis unfolding in Cuba as a result of the recent measures by the Trump administration has already drawn international concern because it could produce wider regional instability, including another major migratory wave with direct consequences for the United States and the region. In fact, experts have warned that efforts to destabilize or depose the Cuban government could trigger massive Cuban migration, which is already a live issue for U.S. and regional authorities.[xii]
This escalation towards Cuba seems to reflect more than a rhetorical brinkmanship. The Trump administration’s current Cuba approach of resource deprivation, economic strangulation and regime change is backed by escalating military signaling in the Caribbean. Developments in Venezuela and Iran suggest that the risk of a military intervention in Cuba is very real. For more insights, please read “Some Facts about a Potential US Intervention in Cuba.”
[i] Reuters, “Trump says ‘Cuba is next’ in speech touting US military successes,” March 27, 2026, https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/trump-says-cuba-is-next-speech-touting-us-military-successes-2026-03-27/.
[ii] NPR, “Marco Rubio is pressing for change in Cuba. Will it work?,” February 28, 2026, https://www.npr.org/2026/02/28/nx-s1-5727602/marco-rubio-is-pressing-for-change-in-cuba-will-it-work ; “Rubio on Cuba: ‘They have to get new people in charge’” https://thehill.com/policy/international/5787874-cuba-political-change-rubio/
[iii] The White House, “Addressing Threats to the United States by the Government of Cuba,” January 29, 2026, https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2026/01/addressing-threats-to-the-united-states-by-the-government-of-cuba/.
[iv] The White House, “Fact Sheet: President Donald J. Trump Addresses Threats to the United States by the Government of Cuba,” January 29, 2026, https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2026/01/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-addresses-threats-to-the-united-states-by-the-government-of-cuba/.
[v] United Nations, “Noon Briefing by the Office of the Spokesperson for the Secretary-General,” February 4, 2026, https://www.un.org/sg/en/content/noon-briefing-highlight?date=2026-02-04.
[vi] Reuters, “International convoy delivers tons of aid to Cuba amid crisis” https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/international-convoy-delivers-tons-aid-cuba-amid-crisis-2026-03-24/ “; Two humanitarian aid boats safely reach Havana after being located by Mexican Navy,” March 28, 2026, https://www.reuters.com/world/mexicos-navy-locates-two-missing-sailboats-carrying-aid-cuba-crew-safe-2026-03-28/.
[vii] See ACERE Statement on the Introduction of Legislations to Prevent an Unconstitutional War in Cuba.
[viii] Reuters, “US military says it struck vessel in Caribbean, killed four people,” March 25, 2026, https://www.reuters.com/world/us-military-says-it-struck-vessel-caribbean-killed-four-people-2026-03-25/; Reuters, “Exclusive: Trump military campaign against boats has killed 157 people, most not targeted, data show,” March 28, 2026, https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/trump-military-campaign-against-boats-has-killed-157-people-most-not-targeted-data-show-2026-03-28/
[ix] Stars and Stripes, “US maintains strong military force in the Caribbean with 5 warships, thousands of troops,” March 12, 2026, https://www.stripes.com/branches/navy/2026-03-12/us-presence-caribbean-5-warships-21043276.html
[x] Reuters, “Cuba opens talks with U.S. as oil blockade takes a toll,” March 13, 2026, https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/cuban-president-under-pressure-economic-crisis-trump-address-media-2026-03-13/; “Cuba’s national electric grid collapses, leaving millions without power,” March 16, 2026, https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/cubas-national-electric-grid-collapses-says-grid-operator-2026-03-16/; Reuters, “Cuba restores power after 29-hour blackout amid US oil blockade,” March 17, 2026, https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/cuba-reconnects-electrical-grid-millions-still-without-power-2026-03-17/.
[xi] NYT, “Cuban Patients Are Dying Because of U.S. Blockade, Doctors Say,” March 26, 2026, https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/26/world/americas/cubas-health-system-us-oil-blockade.html ; Reuters, “Cuban doctors endure burnout, blackouts as once-vaunted healthcare declines,” March 26, 2026, https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/cuban-doctors-endure-burnout-blackouts-once-vaunted-healthcare-declines-2026-03-26/
[xii] Reuters, “Who are the players deciding Cuba’s future amid talks with US?,” March 27, 2026, https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/who-are-players-deciding-cubas-future-amid-talks-with-us-2026-03-27/; Reuters, “Judge probes Trump administration on ‘unwritten’ deal for Mexico to accept Cubans,” March 25, 2026, https://www.reuters.com/legal/government/judge-probes-trump-administration-unwritten-deal-mexico-accept-cubans-2026-03-25/..
