US-Cuba Policy Highlights
Issue No. 23 - January 2026
In this newsletter:
ACERE Policy Insight
Why Negotiating with Cuba Would Be the Most Convenient Approach
- ACERE Activities
ACERE Statement— National Emergency Order Threatening Cuba’s Oil Suppliers – Read the ACERE statement
- ACERE Statement— Military Operation In Venezuela: A Reckless Escalation That Harms U.S. Interests – Read the ACERE Statement
- ACERE Fact Sheet— Some Facts about a Potential US Intervention in Cuba – Read the ACERE Fact Sheet
- ACERE Press Release— President Trump Is Being Poorly Advised to Conduct a Military Intervention in Cuba – Read the ACERE Press Release
- US-Cuba Policy News
- Mexico shelves planned shipment of oil to Cuba amid US tensions
- The U.S. is actively seeking regime change in Cuba by the end of the year
- Pentagon bought device through undercover operation some investigators suspect is linked to Havana Syndrome
- Catholic Church to start delivering U.S. aid for victims of Hurricane Melissa in Cuba
- U.S. to stop issuing immigrant visas for 75 countries
- US judge blocks Trump administration’s push to end legal status of 8,400 migrants
- News from Cuba
Cubans scramble to survive as US vise on island tightens in push to oust government
- Defense Council session makes headlines
Remains of 32 Cuban officers killed during strike on Venezuela repatriated as US threat lingers
- Cuba condemns and denounces a new escalation of the US’ Economic warfare
Cuba’s creditors acknowledge Havana’s ‘efforts’ to settle its debts
- Anger and anguish spread across Cuba as it learns of Trump’s tariff threat on those who provide oil
- Spain will approve an extraordinary regularization of immigrants that could benefit thousands of Cubans.
- Recommended Media
An American first case for ending the Cuban embargo
- Cuba and the United States: lessons and counter-lessons from the intervention in Venezuela
- “Is Cuba next?” Webinar hosted by the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
- What Does Trump Mean When He Says He Wants a Deal With Cuba?
- Trump will be sore when Cuba domino refuses to fall
- Tweet of the Month
- Pope Leo XIV on X
ACERE Policy Insight
Why Negotiating with Cuba Would Be the Most Convenient Approach
Even if a “regime change” (i.e., forced political transition) were to occur in Cuba, a central problem remains unresolved: who would govern the transition? The current Cuban opposition is very loosely organized, has little social support, limited visibility inside the country, and no governing experience. This lack of institutional capacity of the Cuban opposition makes a stable transition highly unlikely.
The absence of a credible domestic opposition partner creates a strategic dilemma. Proposals to impose leadership from abroad—such as the idea of Secretary Marco Rubio as a transitional figure—are unrealistic, lack legitimacy among Cubans, and risk violating international norms. Secretary Rubio himself is widely unpopular in Cuba, lacks governing experience, and is politically tied to policies that have alienated many Cubans.
More broadly, there is no clear U.S.-aligned alternative capable of replicating the Venezuela model in Cuba, nor are there visible fractures within the Cuban leadership willing to facilitate a forced transition. Severe disruption of Cuban institutions would likely destabilize the country and strengthen the role of the military, rather than produce reform.
Such instability would directly undermine U.S. priorities by triggering large-scale irregular migration, and reducing current U.S.-Cuba cooperation on human and drug trafficking. Given Cuba’s historical cooperation on counter-narcotics and migration control, engagement with current authorities through dialogue and diplomacy—rather than coercion—offers the most pragmatic path to protect U.S. interests and regional stability.
To overcome the deep economic, humanitarian, and energy crises that Cuba currently faces, severe structural challenges such as import dependence, de-capitalization, hybrid state-private economy and –most importantly— extreme U.S. embargo and sanctions need to be addressed. Weakened Cuban state revenues largely resulting from U.S. maximum pressure policies targeting every revenue stream (tourism, service exports, foreign investments, remittances, etc.) further constrain any potential post-transition government.
Cuban President Diaz-Canel and other government officials have reiterated that they continue to be interested in dialogue, and are willing to discuss any topics. The Trump Administration should negotiate with the Cuban leadership to advance U.S. interests in the region, allow U.S. companies to take advantage of a stable and potentially lucrative market, and prevent the collapse of a nation so close to our Southern border.
ACERE Statement
The Alliance for Cuba Engagement and Respect (ACERE) strongly condemns the U.S. national emergency order that labels Cuba a threat to U.S. national security and threatens Cuba’s oil suppliers, arguing it will intensify economic hardship and punish Cuban civilians by restricting vital energy imports. ACERE warns these emergency powers enable sweeping sanctions and coercive measures that violate international law and harm ordinary people rather than advancing real security interests. – Read the ACERE statement
ACERE strongly criticizes the U.S. military removal of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro as a dangerous violation of Venezuela’s sovereignty and international law, arguing it risks regional conflict, undermines U.S. interests, and blurs the line between law enforcement and political intervention. ACERE calls for de-escalation, respect for sovereignty, lawful processes, and diplomatic solutions instead of unilateral force. – Read the ACERE Statement
ACERE Press Release— President Trump Is Being Poorly Advised to Conduct a Military Intervention in Cuba |
ACERE warns that calls for U.S. military intervention in Cuba are based on poor advice and flawed assumptions, and would harm both Cuban society and U.S. interests by destabilizing the island, worsening migration and security threats, and undermining regional cooperation. ACERE believes that true change must come through diplomacy and respect for Cuban sovereignty, not force. – Read the ACERE Press Release |
US-Cuba Policy News
The views and opinions expressed by authors are their own and articles do not necessarily reflect the views or positions of ACERE.
Mexico shelves planned shipment of oil to Cuba amid US tensions
BLOOMBERG reported that Mexico’s state oil company Pemex, a key supplier, backed out of a planned crude-oil shipment to Cuba, removing the cargo from its schedule. The move highlights Mexico’s diplomatic balancing act as U.S. pressure grows, including threats of tariffs on countries supplying oil to Cuba, with Mexican leaders portraying decisions on shipments as sovereign and contractual. U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said Washington has not blocked Mexico from supplying oil to Cuba and that current policy still allows these exports despite President Trump’s harsher rhetoric, underscoring a nuanced U.S. stance that stops short of official prohibition even as tensions rise.
The U.S. is actively seeking regime change in Cuba by the end of the year
According to the Wall Street Journal, the Trump administration is searching for Cuban government insiders who can help cut a deal to push out the Communist government by the end of the year. U.S. officials have reportedly assessed that Cuba’s economy is close to collapse.
Pentagon bought device through undercover operation some investigators suspect is linked to Havana Syndrome
The Defense Department has spent more than a year testing a device purchased in an undercover operation that some investigators believe could be connected to the mysterious health incidents known as Havana Syndrome. First reported in Havana in 2017, the incidents were used to justify reversing U.S.–Cuba rapprochement during the Obama administration and have since been reported across multiple continents.
https://edition.cnn.com/2026/01/13/politics/havana-syndrome-device-pentagon-hsi
Catholic Church to start delivering U.S. aid for victims of Hurricane Melissa in Cuba
The United States announced direct humanitarian shipments to Cuba through the Catholic Church as part of $3 million in disaster assistance committed by the Trump administration following Hurricane Melissa. The aid will be distributed to affected communities across the island.
https://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/americas/cuba/article3143
U.S. to stop issuing immigrant visas for 75 countries
The U.S. government announced the suspension of immigrant visas for Cuban nationals, along with those from 74 other countries, further tightening migration channels. The decision effectively closes nearly all legal pathways for Cubans seeking to enter the United States.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/trump-administration/us-stop-issuing-visas-75-countries-rcna254039
US judge blocks Trump administration’s push to end legal status of 8,400 migrants
A federal judge in Boston temporarily blocked the Trump administration’s attempt to terminate a family reunification program allowing green card holders to sponsor relatives from several countries, including Cuba. Had the policy taken full effect, thousands of Cuban migrants in the United States could have faced deportation.
News from Cuba
The views and opinions expressed by authors are their own and articles do not necessarily reflect the views or positions of ACERE.
Cubans scramble to survive as US vise on island tightens in push to oust government
U.S. sanctions and disrupted oil shipments have deepened Cuba’s economic crisis, pushing many Cubans toward self-sufficiency through farming, renewable energy, and simpler living. While Washington hopes increased pressure will spark political change, many Cubans point to past crises they have endured and emphasize resilience and national dignity. Despite shortages, blackouts, and rising prices, public unity suggests external pressure is unlikely to force rapid political transformation.
https://apnews.com/article/cuba-us-trump-sanctions-oil-venezuela-177998b88333ba7d898bb8465367ba2d
Defense Council session makes headlines
Cuba’s National Defense Council convened to prepare for a potential state of war and activated the country’s longstanding defense doctrine known as the “All-People’s War,” signaling heightened alert levels amid rising regional and international tensions.
https://www.plenglish.com/news/2026/01/18/cuba-defense-council-session-makes-headlines/
Remains of 32 Cuban officers repatriated as US threat lingers
Cuba held an official mourning period for 32 Cuban officers killed during what authorities describe as an operation linked to the kidnapping of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. The repatriation of their remains has had a significant emotional and political impact on Cuban society as tensions with the United States persist.
Cuba condemns new escalation of US economic warfare
Cuba’s government condemned what it described as a new escalation in U.S. economic warfare following a January 29, 2026 executive order declaring a national emergency to justify tariffs on imports from countries supplying oil to Cuba. Havana called the measure coercive and based on false claims that Cuba poses an extraordinary threat to U.S. national security, arguing it violates international law and attempts to dictate other nations’ trade relations. Cuba reiterated its openness to respectful dialogue and urged the international community to reject what it characterized as aggressive unilateral measures.
Cuba’s creditors acknowledge Havana’s efforts to settle debts
Cuba presented its financial situation to major creditors at a Paris Club meeting in France. According to reports, creditors acknowledged the island’s efforts to comply with repayment agreements despite its complex economic circumstances. The Cuban delegation was led by Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Trade Minister Oscar Pérez-Oliva.
https://efe.com/economia/acreedores-cuba-reconocimiento-esfuerzo-pago-deudas-club-paris/
Anger and anguish spread across Cuba over US tariff threat on oil suppliers
News of potential U.S. tariffs targeting countries that supply oil to Cuba sparked concern and frustration across the island, particularly as widespread power outages continued. Many Cubans fear the policy could worsen already severe shortages and deepen economic hardship linked to existing sanctions.
https://apnews.com/article/cuba-oil-us-tariffs-trump-outages-1f2a66806b05b2dc71bb9808d61c2635
Spain to regularize immigrants in move that could benefit thousands of Cubans
Spain approved a royal decree enabling extraordinary regularization of immigrants that could benefit nearly half a million people, including thousands of Cubans. Between 2023 and 2025, an estimated 80,000 Cubans arrived in Spain, bringing the Cuban community there to more than 250,000. Many have also pursued citizenship through Spain’s Democratic Memory Law.
Recommended Media
The views and opinions expressed by authors are their own and articles do not necessarily reflect the views or positions of ACERE.
An America First Case for Ending the Cuban Embargo
An analysis of U.S. policy toward Cuba argues that Cold War–era sanctions undermine Washington’s strategic interests by weakening a potential regional partner and limiting cooperation on security issues such as counternarcotics. The piece contends that engagement would better align with U.S. national security goals by reducing migration pressures, countering Russian and Chinese influence, expanding opportunities for U.S. businesses, and improving soft power. It also argues that enforcing the embargo burdens U.S. taxpayers and restricts Americans’ freedom to travel.
https://www.theamericanconservative.com/an-america-first-case-for-ending-the-cuban-embargo/
Cuba and the United States: Lessons and Counter-lessons from the Intervention in Venezuela
An opinion column in OnCuba examines the consequences of heightened hostility toward Cuba, arguing that escalating tensions shrink the space for dialogue and reduce opportunities for gradual change through diplomatic or cooperative channels. The piece reflects on lessons drawn from U.S. intervention dynamics in Venezuela and their implications for U.S.–Cuba relations.
“Is Cuba next?” webinar by the Quincy Institute
The Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft hosted a policy webinar exploring whether Cuba could face major political change following recent U.S. actions in Venezuela and escalating pressure on Havana. Panelists—including William LeoGrande and former U.S. ambassadors Jeffrey DeLaurentis and Vicki Huddleston—discussed the Trump administration’s Cuba strategy, the feasibility of a bilateral agreement, and pathways toward a more constructive and mutually beneficial relationship.
https://quincyinst.org/events/is-cuba-next/
What Does Trump Mean When He Says He Wants a Deal With Cuba?
A report from Belly of the Beast examines President Trump’s calls for Cuba to “make a deal” with the United States amid deepening economic pressure and the cutoff of Venezuelan oil supplies. The analysis notes that a prior U.S.–Cuba agreement existed under the Obama administration and suggests current demands reflect renewed pressure tactics and domestic political considerations rather than a clearly defined diplomatic framework.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pevC00FxTo
Trump will be sore when Cuba domino refuses to fall
An analysis in Responsible Statecraft argues that repeated U.S. predictions of imminent political collapse in Cuba have historically failed. Despite severe economic strain and the loss of Venezuelan oil support, past efforts—including embargoes and covert actions—have not produced regime change. The piece suggests that economic hardship does not automatically translate into political collapse and that external pressure alone is unlikely to achieve Washington’s desired outcome.
Tweet of the Month
Pope Leo XIV on X: “I have received the greatly troubling news regarding an increase in tensions between Cuba and the United States of America, two neighboring countries. I echo the message of the Cuban bishops, inviting all responsible parties to promote a sincere and effective dialogue, in order to avoid violence and every action that could increase the suffering of the dear Cuban people”. https://x.com/pontifex/status/
