US-Cuba Policy Highlights
Issue No. 26 - April 2026
In this newsletter:
In this newsletter:
ACERE Policy Insight
Military Action Against Cuba Appears Imminent
- ACERE Activities
ACERE Commends Congressional Delegation to Cuba, Calls for Immediate End to Fuel Blockade- Read the ACERE Statement
- ACERE Action Alert: Urge your Members of Congress to Uphold Congressional War Powers & Oppose Intervention in Cuba Take Action Now and Distribute Widely.
- US-Cuba Policy News
‘A sudden gap’: poorest to suffer from Trump’s drive to stop Cuba sending doctors to its neighbors.
Democrats try to blunt Trump in Cuba — before it’s too late
US Democrats look to rein in Trump’s war powers, this time on Cuba
Secret chats, sneaky letters surround Cuba talks
Cuban exiles have renewed hope and fears over claims on property seized long ago
Regime change? A military takeover? Trump’s thorny Cuba options
U.S. Officials Visited Havana to Lay Out Proposals for Cuban Reforms
US Navy surveillance drone flies mission along Cuba’s coast
Cuban Americans support U.S. military attack on Cuba, reject economic deal, poll shows
First Draft: Is Cuba Next?
Pair of Democrat lawmakers slam ‘blockade of fuel’ to Cuba
FBI visits Cuba to probe Florida speedboat attack as survivors face terrorism charges
- News from Cuba
Cuba is running out of time. We need fuel now to save lives
Cubans back ‘My signature for the Homeland’ campaign as tensions with US intensify
Cuba Heavy Crude Refining Technology Breakthrough: 7 Powerful Impacts Transform Energy Independence
Cuba sees short-term relief as Russian oil begins to flow
Cuba could beat US energy blockade with $8bn investment in renewables, says thinktank
‘That crazy old man should leave Cuba alone’: farmers bear the brunt of Trump’s pressure campaign
Cuban President’s Defiant Response to US Threats: ‘Willing to Give My Life’
Cubans take to bikes and electric tricycles to protest US sanctions
- Cuba to free more than 2,000 prisoners as economic crisis deepens under US pressure
- Recommended Media
US Sanctions and the Sharp Rise in Infant Mortality in Cuba
Waiting in Darkness: The U.S. fuel blockade against Cuba
In Cuba a deadlock is more likely than a deal.
Identifying the effect of the US embargo on the Cuban economy
- Is the US prepping for a military operation in Cuba?
- Exclusive Interview | U.S. Lawmakers Pramila Jayapal & Jonathan Jackson Speak in Cuba
- The Cuban Americans who want to normalize relations between the U.S. and Cuba
- Congress: Give the President Discretion to Remove the Cuba Embargo.
- Trump Isn’t Taking Cuba. He’s Starving It
- Tweet of the Month
ACERE Policy Insight
A Military Action Against Cuba Seems Imminent
There are indications of a shift in the Trump Administration’s approach to Cuba—from a strategy centered on “maximum pressure” toward one that may include military options. In April 2026, the U.S. Navy deployed an MQ-4C Triton drone for a 12-hour reconnaissance mission around Cuban airspace, including areas near Havana and Guantánamo Bay, where the U.S. naval base is located. Such prolonged, high-altitude intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) flights are typically used to map terrain, track infrastructure and military assets, monitor communications, and identify potential strategic targets, rather than for routine patrols. Analysts note that these capabilities are often employed during the early stages of war planning.[1] This development adds to an increased U.S. naval presence in the Caribbean, as well as reported threats by President Trump to deploy a U.S. aircraft carrier near Cuban coasts. Past U.S. military operations have similarly been preceded by naval and surveillance buildups used both to guide and prepare for potential intervention.[2]
At the same time, the policy of maximum pressure has continued to intensify, both economically and politically. At the end of April 2026, new sanctions were imposed to deter the remaining international actors engaging in business with Cuba, including those involved in energy, mining, finance, technology, defense and security, with repercussions even for humanitarian assistance. The Executive Order titled “Imposing Sanctions on those Responsible for Repression in Cuba and for Threats to United States National Security and Foreign Policy” threatens secondary sanctions such as fines and property seizures on any individual or entity directly or indirectly trading with Cuba, meaning even third-party suppliers could be affected.[3] These measures build on a trade embargo in place for more than six decades and a three-month oil blockade, neither of which has achieved the stated objective of regime collapse. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has increasingly attributed Cuba’s economic crisis to its government and has emphasized that regime change is a necessary condition for economic recovery.
The broader geopolitical context reinforces these concerns. The Caribbean remains strategically significant for U.S. energy security and regional influence in the “Donroe Doctrine”, and Cuba’s geographic position makes it a focal point in great-power competition in the Western Hemisphere. Secretary Rubio has revived allegations of Russian and Chinese intelligence bases in Cuba, framing them as justification for a stronger response. China and Russia have rejected these claims and have continued to support Cuba—particularly in solar energy infrastructure and oil shipments—helping it mitigate the effects of U.S. sanctions and the oil blockade. Taken together, these dynamics resemble a dual-track strategy combining pressure and preparedness, a pattern that has historically preceded more direct intervention.[4]
These developments suggest that the escalation of economic and political pressure may not be solely intended to force negotiations on terms set by the Trump Administration. Rather, it may also serve to justify potential military action by contributing to a severe humanitarian situation and reinforcing narratives of state failure and alignment with U.S. adversaries. Although there have been indications of diplomatic engagement, it appears to be limited to early stage exchanges and public signaling. At the same time, U.S. leadership has continued to call for fundamental political change in Cuba, while Cuban officials have emphasized unity and a willingness to resist even a military invasion. This points to a possible stalemate in diplomatic efforts.[4]
Domestic political dynamics in the United States further underscore the sense of escalation. Congressional Democrats have demanded answers from the State Department after members of a House delegation were denied the opportunity to meet with Chargé d’Affaires Mike Hammer at the U.S. Embassy in Havana during an April visit. They argued that restricting access during a period of reported negotiations and heightened tensions undermines congressional oversight.[5] At the same time, President Trump has appealed to conservative Cuban American constituencies, including by suggesting that exiles may be able to reclaim property lost after the Cuban Revolution, reassuring them that “Cuba is next” after Iran [6]. A recent poll commissioned by the Miami Herald reported that a majority of respondents in four South Florida counties support military intervention; however, questions remain about the poll’s methodology and representativeness, as the full questionnaire and detailed data have not been made public. Commentary on social media platforms has also drawn parallels between current developments and pre-conflict conditions in other regions.[7]
While none of these factors alone constitutes definitive evidence of imminent military action, their convergence is notable. Increased military surveillance and presence, intensified economic coercion, heightened rhetoric, and strategic geopolitical framing collectively suggest that the likelihood of military escalation is growing. At the same time, structural realities—such as the limited presence of organized domestic opposition within Cuba—imply that any effort at regime change would likely require direct external intervention. Such a scenario carries significant risks, including the possibility of broader international confrontation, particularly given Russia’s stated willingness to support the Cuban government.
Notes
[1] https://defence-blog.com/us-
[4] https://responsiblestatecraft.
[6] https://responsiblestatecraft.
[7] Bulwark Online (@bulwarkonline), post on X (formerly Twitter), April 2026.
.
ACERE Activities
ACERE praises Congresswoman Pramila Jayapal (D-WA) and Congressman Jonathan Jackson (D-IL) who visited Cuba and reported severe humanitarian impacts from the U.S. fuel blockade, including blackouts, reduced food production, and strain on hospitals. U.S. lawmakers recognized that these maximum pressure measures are equivalent to an act of war or ‘economic bombing,’ and amount to collective punishment. They called for an immediate end to the policy, while urging Congress to support legislation preventing military escalation and the Trump administration to engage in serious diplomatic negotiations. Read this ACERE statement
ACERE Action Alert– Urge your Member of Congress to Stand Up for Peace |
Given the latest threats against Cuba by the Trump administration, including the possibility of military intervention, ACERE believes that Congress must use its constitutionally designated authority to detain any possible military actions and to prevent any further assaults against Cuba’s sovereignty. Take action by clicking here below, to tell your members of Congress to support legislative measures like H.R. 8103, H.R. 7521, S. 136, S.J. 124, and H.J. 153 that have been introduced to prevent military escalation. Take Action Now and Distribute Widely. |
US-Cuba Policy News
The views and opinions expressed by authors are their own and articles do not necessarily reflect the views or positions of ACERE.
‘A sudden gap’: poorest to suffer from Trump’s drive to stop Cuba sending doctors to its neighbours — The Guardian, April 26
U.S. pressure to halt Cuba’s overseas medical missions is leaving vulnerable populations across Latin America and the Caribbean without essential healthcare. Governments that relied on Cuban doctors are now struggling to fill the gap, disproportionately affecting rural and low-income communities. Critics argue the policy prioritizes geopolitical goals over humanitarian needs.
Democrats try to blunt Trump in Cuba — before it’s too late — USA Today, April 25
This piece outlines efforts by Democratic lawmakers to counter the Trump administration’s escalating stance toward Cuba, warning that current policies risk triggering military conflict. Legislators are pushing for renewed diplomacy and oversight, emphasizing the dangers of rapid escalation. The article frames the situation as a race to prevent irreversible confrontation.
US Democrats look to rein in Trump’s war powers, this time on Cuba — Reuters, April 24
Reuters reports that Democrats in Congress are seeking to limit the president’s ability to launch military action against Cuba without legislative approval. The effort reflects growing concern that the administration could bypass Congress in escalating tensions. Lawmakers cite past conflicts as justification for reasserting constitutional war powers.
Secret chats, sneaky letters surround Cuba talks — Politico, April 23
This article reveals that behind-the-scenes communications between U.S. and Cuban officials are ongoing despite public tensions. However, progress remains minimal, with mistrust and conflicting priorities hindering meaningful breakthroughs. The piece portrays diplomacy as active but largely ineffective so far.
Cuban exiles have renewed hope and fears over claims on property seized long ago — Associated Press, April 22
Cuban exiles are experiencing renewed hope that decades-old property claims could finally be addressed amid rising U.S. pressure and possible negotiations with Havana. At the same time, many fear they could be sidelined in any political or economic deal, especially if the U.S. prioritizes strategic or business interests over restitution. The piece highlights the complexity of resolving thousands of claims and the tension between expectations of justice and concerns about being excluded from outcomes.
Regime change? A military takeover? Trump’s thorny Cuba options — USA Today, April 18
The article explores a range of policy options under consideration by the Trump administration, from intensified sanctions to potential military intervention. Analysts warn that more aggressive strategies, including regime change, carry significant risks and uncertainties. The piece underscores the lack of clear consensus on the best path forward.
U.S. Officials Visited Havana to Lay Out Proposals for Cuban Reforms — The New York Times, April 18
A senior U.S. delegation traveled to Havana to press Cuban leaders to implement sweeping economic and political reforms, warning they had only a limited window to act before conditions worsened. Proposals included expanding internet access, compensating U.S. claims over confiscated property, and encouraging private-sector growth, while signaling that failure to comply could deepen the crisis or provoke stronger U.S. action.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/18/world/americas/us-officials-cuba-trump.html
US Navy surveillance drone flies mission along Cuba’s coast — USA Today, April 17
This report details a U.S. Navy MQ-4C Triton drone conducting an extended surveillance mission along Cuba’s coastline. The flight highlights increased military monitoring amid rising tensions between the two countries. Observers interpret the activity as part of broader intelligence-gathering efforts.
Cuban Americans support U.S. military attack on Cuba, reject economic deal, poll shows — Miami Herald, April 16
According to a poll commissioned by the Miami Herald, a significant portion of Cuban Americans in South Florida support military action against the Cuban government over negotiated economic solutions. The findings, based on 800 respondents in four South Florida counties (Miami-Dade, Broward, Palm Beach, and Monroe) and whose row dataset has not been made public, reflect hardline attitudes within parts of the diaspora community. Analysts note this could influence political decision-making in Washington.
https://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/americas/cuba/article315419580.html
First Draft: Is Cuba Next? — Zeteo, April 14
The article claims that members of the Trump administration have discussed plans involving direct action against Cuban leadership, including extreme measures such as kidnapping. It also suggests diplomatic alternatives have been dismissed, raising concerns about escalation. The piece presents a highly alarmed view of U.S. intentions.
https://zeteo.com/p/is-cuba-next
Human rights groups decry US plan for Guantánamo camp for Cuban migrants — The Guardian, April 10
Human rights organizations are criticizing a proposed plan to house Cuban migrants at facilities in Guantánamo Bay. Advocates warn the policy could lead to indefinite detention and legal ambiguity. The plan is framed as part of a broader hardening of U.S. policy toward Cuba.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/apr/10/trump-guantanamo-cuban-migrants
Pair of Democrat lawmakers slam ‘blockade of fuel’ to Cuba, ‘economic bombing’ after visit to island — Fox News, April 6
Two U.S. lawmakers, Pramila Jayapal and Jonathan Jackson, visited Cuba and criticized the U.S. energy blockade, calling it a form of “economic bombing” that has caused severe humanitarian problems like blackouts, fuel shortages, and disruptions to healthcare. After meeting with Miguel Díaz-Canel and other officials, they argued that recent Cuban actions—such as pardoning prisoners and opening parts of the economy—signal an opportunity for renewed negotiations, urging the U.S. to reverse longstanding policies and pursue dialogue to address the crisis.
FBI visits Cuba to probe Florida speedboat attack as survivors face terrorism charges — CNN, April 1
CNN reports that the FBI is investigating a violent speedboat incident involving Florida-based individuals and Cuban targets. Survivors are facing terrorism-related charges, adding legal and diplomatic tension to an already strained relationship. The case underscores the security dimension of U.S.–Cuba interactions.
News from Cuba
The views and opinions expressed by authors are their own and articles do not necessarily reflect the views or positions of ACERE.
Cuba is running out of time. We need fuel now to save lives — The Guardian, April 30
The article warns that Cuba’s worsening fuel shortages are creating a humanitarian emergency, disrupting hospitals, water systems, and food distribution. Health professionals and aid groups argue that without immediate fuel access, the crisis could lead to preventable deaths. It frames the situation as urgent and directly tied to U.S. restrictions.
Cubans back ‘My signature for the Homeland’ campaign as tensions with US intensify — Associated Press, April 29
The report describes a nationwide campaign in which millions of Cubans sign petitions rejecting U.S. sanctions and expressing support for national sovereignty. The initiative is presented by the government as a show of unity amid escalating tensions with Washington. Critics, however, question how freely such participation occurs.
https://apnews.com/article/cuba-signatures-campaign-sanctions-us-df342d257e9e872c3f69333620a1f523
Cuba Heavy Crude Refining Technology Breakthrough: 7 Powerful Impacts Transform Energy Independence — TeleSUR, April 24
This piece highlights a technological development in Cuba’s refining sector that could improve processing of heavy crude oil. It suggests the breakthrough may reduce dependence on imported fuels and strengthen energy independence. The article presents an optimistic outlook on domestic innovation.
https://www.telesurenglish.net/cuba-heavy-crude-refining-technology/
Cuba sees short-term relief as Russian oil begins to flow — Reuters, April 23
Reuters reports that shipments of Russian oil have provided temporary relief to Cuba’s severe fuel shortages. While the inflow helps stabilize electricity generation and transport in the short term, analysts caution it does not resolve the underlying structural crisis. The situation remains fragile amid ongoing external pressures.
Cuba could beat US energy blockade with $8bn investment in renewables, says thinktank — The Guardian, April 15
The article highlights a proposal that Cuba could overcome energy shortages through large-scale investment in renewable energy, particularly solar and wind. Analysts estimate that $8 billion could significantly reduce dependence on imported fuel. However, financing and infrastructure challenges remain major obstacles.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/apr/15/cuba-beat-us-energy-blockade-investment-renewables
Cuba’s top destinations deserted, without power or fuel under US sanctions — Reuters, April 14
This report shows how fuel shortages and blackouts —on top of Trump administration measures to cripple the Cuban economy and discourage travel to Cuba— have severely impacted Cuba’s tourism sector, leaving major destinations largely empty. Businesses are struggling to operate amid unreliable electricity and transportation disruptions. This historic downturn in tourists is deepening the island’s broader economic crisis.
‘That crazy old man should leave Cuba alone’: farmers bear the brunt of Trump’s pressure campaign — The Guardian, April 13
The article focuses on Cuban farmers who are facing declining production due to fuel shortages and limited access to supplies. Many report being unable to harvest or transport crops, worsening food insecurity. The piece portrays rural communities as among the hardest hit by current policies.
Cuban President’s Defiant Response to US Threats: ‘Willing to Give My Life’ — Newsweek, April 12
The article reports on Cuban leadership’s strong rhetoric in response to perceived U.S. threats, emphasizing resistance and national sovereignty. The president frames the situation as a struggle against external pressure and signals readiness to endure hardship. The tone reflects heightened political tension.
https://www.newsweek.com/cuban-presidents-defiant-response-us-threats-willing-give-life-11817118
Cubans take to bikes and electric tricycles to protest US sanctions — Reuters, April 2
Reuters reports on public demonstrations where Cubans used bicycles and electric vehicles to protest fuel shortages and U.S. sanctions. The protests highlight everyday hardships caused by transportation and energy constraints. Participants framed their actions as both practical and symbolic.
Cuba to free more than 2,000 prisoners as economic crisis deepens under US pressure — CNN, April 2
CNN reports that Cuba plans to release over 2,000 prisoners amid worsening economic conditions and international scrutiny. The move is presented as part of broader efforts to manage internal pressures. It also has potential implications for diplomatic relations with the United States.
https://edition.cnn.com/2026/04/02/americas/cuba-prisoner-release-us-trump-pressure-intl-hnk
Recommended Media
The views and opinions expressed by authors are their own and articles do not necessarily reflect the views or positions of ACERE.
US Sanctions and the Sharp Rise in Infant Mortality in Cuba — Center for Economic and Policy Research, April 27
This report by CEPR economists argues that the tightening of U.S. coercive measures has contributed to a significant rise in Cuba’s infant mortality rate by restricting access to medical supplies and economic resources. The authors link worsening health outcomes directly to reduced imports and financial constraints caused by sanctions.
https://cepr.net/publications/us-sanctions-and-the-sharp-rise-in-infant-mortality-in-cuba/
Waiting in Darkness: The U.S. fuel blockade against Cuba — Commonweal Magazine, April 27
Authored by Joy Gordon, the article argues that U.S. fuel restrictions have led to widespread blackouts and humanitarian hardship in Cuba. It frames the policy as ethically problematic, emphasizing its impact on civilians rather than government elites.
https://www.commonwealmagazine.org/waiting-darkness-gordon-cuba-sanctions-america
In Cuba a deadlock is more likely than a deal. Trump wants something that the government in Havana is just not willing to give – Responsible Statecraft, April 26
Leogrande argues that despite escalating threats from Donald Trump, a decisive U.S. victory or “deal” with Cuba is unlikely, and a prolonged stalemate is more probable. It highlights that Cuba’s political system is resilient and offers few clear pathways for regime change, while U.S. options—ranging from sanctions to military pressure—carry significant risks and uncertain outcomes. Current U.S. strategy may increase tensions without producing meaningful concessions, making deadlock more likely than either successful negotiations or rapid transformation in Cuba.
https://responsiblestatecraft.org/cuba-deal-trump-war/
Identifying the effect of the US embargo on the Cuban economy: A comment on Bastos, Geloso, and Bologna Pavlik — SSRN, April 21
Economist Francisco Rodríguez critiques a prior study, arguing it underestimates the impact of the U.S. embargo on Cuba’s economy. He contends that correcting methodological issues shows the embargo accounts for a substantial share, and in some cases all, of Cuba’s economic underperformance since 1959.
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=6618338
Rep. Jonathan Jackson slams US blockade of Cuba as Trump warns socialist country is ‘next’ — The Hill / YouTube, April 17
The Hill’s Judy Kurts sits down with U.S. Representative Jonathan Jackson, son of civil rights icon Jesse Jackson, to discuss the ongoing humanitarian and energy crises in Cuba. Tensions remain high between the United States and Cuba, with the island nation’s crisis deepening as a result of a U.S. energy blockade. Jackson criticizes the U.S. blockade, describing it as a driver of Cuba’s humanitarian and energy crisis. He warns that escalating rhetoric from Donald Trump could signal further confrontation rather than diplomacy.
Cuba: The Bay of Pigs Invasion 65 Years Later — National Security Archive, April 16
Compiled by analysts at the National Security Archive, the article revisits the 1961 Bay of Pigs Invasion using declassified documents. It examines U.S. decision-making and the long-term consequences for U.S.–Cuba relations.
Is the US prepping for a military operation in Cuba? — Responsible Statecraft, April 16
Written by foreign policy analysts at Responsible Statecraft, the article examines signs that the U.S. may be laying groundwork for military action against Cuba, including surveillance and political rhetoric. It warns that escalating tensions and strategic positioning could lead to conflict.
https://responsiblestatecraft.org/cuba-and-us-war/
Sunrise After the Blockade — Transition Security Initiative, April 14
Written by analysts at the Transition Security Initiative, the piece explores potential pathways for Cuba’s recovery if sanctions were lifted, including economic reform and international investment. It presents a forward-looking argument for engagement over isolation.
https://transitionsecurity.org/sunrise-after-the-blockade/
Cuba’s president defiant Under Pressure from Trump — NBC News, April 10
NBC News’ “Meet the Press” moderator Kristen Welker joins “Here’s the Scoop” guest host Ryan Nobles after her trip to Havana to conduct the first interview with a major U.S. broadcast network granted by the Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel. This video report features statements from Miguel Díaz-Canel, who expresses willingness to negotiate with the U.S. but also defies U.S. pressure and coercive measures. The coverage emphasizes Cuba’s stance on sovereignty and resistance amid escalating tensions.
U.S. Lawmakers Pramila Jayapal & Jonathan Jackson Speak in Cuba — Belly of the Beast, April 6
In this interview, U.S. Representatives Pramila Jayapal and Jonathan Jackson describe the humanitarian conditions they witnessed in Cuba, emphasizing shortages of fuel, electricity, and medical resources. They argue for ending current U.S. policies and reopening diplomatic engagement.
The Cuban Americans who want to normalize relations between the U.S. and Cuba — Los Angeles Times, April 3
Now is the time to ‘end the economic war on Cuba,’ say Cuban Americans for Cuba, an emerging collective that joined the recent convoy to Havana Written by Los Angeles Times journalists, the article highlights Cuban American activists—particularly members of “Cuban Americans for Cuba”—who advocate ending the embargo and normalizing relations. It portrays a growing segment of the diaspora pushing back against hardline policies and engaging directly with Cuba through initiatives like aid convoys.
Congress: Give the President Discretion to Remove the Cuba Embargo — Lawfare, April 3
Written by legal scholars contributing to Lawfare, the article argues that current legislation overly restricts the president’s ability to modify Cuba sanctions. The authors call for Congress to restore executive flexibility to adapt policy in response to changing conditions.
Trump Isn’t Taking Cuba. He’s Starving It. — The New York Times, April 2
In this opinion essay, former U.S. diplomat Ricardo Zúñiga who helped lead negotiations with the Cuban government during the second Obama administration, argues that the Trump administration’s strategy toward Cuba relies on economic strangulation—particularly through oil restrictions—rather than direct military intervention. He contends that these policies are worsening humanitarian conditions for ordinary Cubans while failing to produce meaningful political change, and calls for a return to diplomacy and engagement instead of coercive pressure.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/02/opinion/trump-cuba-oil-blockade.html
Tweet of the Month
Cuban Americans for Cuba (@Cubans4Cuba) at X: |
“A poll of Marco Rubio’s backyard is not a mandate from 2.5 million Cuban Americans. Our response to today’s Miami Herald military intervention poll” |
Cuban Americans for Cuba (@Cubans4Cuba) at X
