US-Cuba Policy Highlights
Issue No. 27 - May 2026
In this newsletter:
ACERE Policy Insight
Is the Trump Administration Eyeing a Business Deal with Cuba?
- ACERE Activities
ACERE Statement— ACERE Condemns Trump Administration’s Latest Efforts to Cause Collapse in Cuba Read the ACERE Statement
- ACERE Statement— ACERE Commends the Congressional Black Caucus Urging the Trump Administration to End the Oil Blockade on Cuba Read the ACERE Statement
- ACERE Statement— ACERE Lauds Introduction of Privileged War Powers Resolutions in the House and Senate to Prevent Unauthorized Military Action in Cuba Read the ACERE Statement
- ACERE Action Alert: Urge your Members of Congress to Uphold Congressional War Powers & Oppose Intervention in Cuba Take Action Now and Distribute Widely.
- US-Cuba Policy News
U.S. businessman says talked shop with Raul Castro’s grandson
U.S. general meets Cuban military officials at edge of Guantanamo Bay
U.S. raises threat of military action against Cuba
Rubio: likelihood of negotiated agreement with Cuba ‘not high’
Supreme court permits lawsuit over U.S. assets seized by Cuba in 1960
Sherritt agrees to sell stake in Cuba mining business to company linked to former Trump adviser
U.S. charges Raúl Castro with murder as Trump escalates pressure on Cuba
U.S. targets Cuban political, military leaders with new sanctions
C.I.A. chief visits Cuba as Trump urges sweeping changes
Trump promises U.S.-Cuba talks but gives no details
Senate Republicans warn Trump against Cuba military attack
Trump signs order to tighten Cuba sanctions, targeting foreign banks, companies
- News from Cuba
Water shortages worsen across Cuba as oil supplies dwindle
Cuba sees higher risk of US military aggression as talks stall
Out of gas, Cubans cook with charcoal and wood to survive
Cuban political prisoner released amid high-stakes U.S. negotiations
Protests flare across Havana as power cuts deepen amid U.S. blockade
Cuba mulls U.S. offer of $100 million in aid but wary of Trump’s motives, blockade
U.N. experts warn U.S. fuel blockade puts Cubans’ human rights at risk
U.S. sanctions likely led to increase in infant mortality rate in Cuba, report finds
- Recommended Media
The Pretext behind the Trump Administration labeling Cuba a State Sponsor of Terrorism
Is the United States on the verge of military intervention in Cuba?
Cuba: Declassified records on the Brothers to the Rescue shootdown
How the May 1 Executive Order expands U.S. sanctions on Cuba
What we saw in Cuba shocked us
- Tweet of the Month
ACERE Policy Insight
Is the Trump Administration Eyeing a Business Deal with Cuba?
The Trump administration appears to be pursuing a dual-track strategy toward Cuba: exerting maximum pressure while simultaneously exploring whether a negotiated economic opening could advance U.S. interests on the island. At a time when military action against Cuba seemed increasingly likely, public opposition to such a move—including from members of the Republican Party[1]—may have opened the door to a more pragmatic and rational approach. Evidence for this comes from high-level contacts between U.S. officials and Cuban power brokers, including CIA Director John Ratcliffe’s May visit to Havana, where discussions reportedly covered not only security issues but also economic stability. A CIA official stated that the United States was prepared to engage seriously on economic and security matters if Cuba made “fundamental changes.”[2]
The most intriguing indication of this approach is the case of Sherritt International, a Canadian company that operates a joint venture with a Cuban state mining enterprise. The Moa Nickel S.A. operation exploits one of the world’s largest nickel reserves and has been among the leading global producers of nickel and cobalt, two minerals that are critical for batteries, electric vehicles, aerospace applications, defense systems, and advanced manufacturing. While the Trump administration imposed secondary sanctions targeting foreign individuals, companies, and financial institutions that engage with Cuba, even sanctioning the Moa Nickel venture itself,[3] U.S. authorities reportedly informed Sherritt that negotiations with Gillon Capital, a firm linked to former Trump adviser and Republican fundraiser Ray Washburne, would not violate U.S. sanctions regulations.[4]
Another notable development was the late-May visit to Cuba by U.S. businessman and Republican congressional candidate Vic Mellor. Mellor stated that he discussed business opportunities in Havana with Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro, the grandson of Raúl Castro, and expressed optimism about future U.S.-Cuba economic cooperation if political conditions were to change. His meeting occurred amid a broader pattern of contacts between U.S. figures and Rodríguez Castro, who has emerged as an important interlocutor in communications with Washington.[5]
Reports have also described Cuban backchannel efforts to discuss sanctions relief and potential economic agreements with the Trump administration. Taken together, these developments suggest that, despite an aggressive pressure campaign against Cuba, senior Trump administration officials and politically connected U.S. business figures have maintained channels of communication with Cuban decision-makers and have engaged in discussions on economic issues, including commercial arrangements that could align with broader U.S. strategic objectives, such as securing access to critical minerals. One plausible interpretation is that Washington is seeking to increase its leverage through economic and political pressure while preserving the possibility of a negotiated economic arrangement should Havana agree to significant political or economic concessions.
The Trump administration’s approach to Cuba may therefore remain centered on diplomacy and efforts to persuade the Cuban government to implement a range of reforms, particularly in the economic sphere. These could include privatizing state-run enterprises, expanding opportunities for foreign investment, improving internet access for Cuban citizens, and requiring Cuba to purchase U.S. energy.[6] At the same time, U.S. businesses may see opportunities in offshore oil production in Cuban waters of the Gulf, the extraction of strategic minerals such as nickel and cobalt, and the hospitality and retail sectors. As Secretary Rubio himself has acknowledged, “It’s in our national interest to have a prosperous Cuba, not a failed state 90 miles from our shores.”[7]
Notes
[1] https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/5873176-senate-republicans-caution-trump-cuba/
[4] https://apnews.com/article/sherritt-cuba-canada-trump-sanctions-d2bd6d9a4188e6b81725c0c8a21a533a
[5] https://www.barrons.com/news/us-businessman-says-talked-shop-with-raul-castro-s-grandson-b940a566
[6] https://www.politico.com/news/2026/05/02/trump-cuba-policy-florida-00902686
[7] https://x.com/statedept/status/2055080638353736110
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ACERE Activities
The Cuba War Powers Resolution has been reintroduced in both the House and Senate to prevent any U.S. military action against Cuba without explicit congressional authorization. It defines the U.S. blockade or quarantine of Cuba as introducing U.S. forces into hostilities under the War Powers Resolution, therefore demanding an end to this extreme and unwarranted measure. ACERE celebrates Democratic leaders for persisting on efforts to ensure that U.S. involvement in military hostilities against Cuba does not take place without congressional authorization. ACERE calls on all lawmakers to support these legislative initiatives in the House and Senate. Read the ACERE Statement.
ACERE lauds the Congressional Black Caucus (CBC) for speaking out forcefully against the humanitarian consequences of the Trump administration’s oil blockade on Cuba. In a letter sent to President Trump and Secretary Rubio led by Chairwoman Yvette Clarke, the CBC urged them to end the U.S. oil blockade and related sanctions on Cuba, arguing that these policies have worsened a humanitarian crisis on the island. ACERE commends the CBC for this shared position, and calls on other caucuses to take a stand on this issue. Read the ACERE Statement.
On May 1, President Trump signed Executive Order 14404, substantially expanding U.S. sanctions against Cuba by targeting government officials, military-linked entities, key economic sectors, and, most significantly, foreign companies and financial institutions that do business with Cuba through broad secondary sanctions. Subsequent measures, including sanctions on major state-controlled enterprises, mining ventures, senior political and military leaders, and continued efforts to restrict fuel shipments to the island, signal a strategy aimed at increasing economic and political pressure on the Cuban government by limiting its access to revenue, foreign investment, and energy supplies. ACERE warns that these measures may have mixed implications for a negotiated resolution of the long-standing U.S.-Cuba dispute. They may further erode trust and make direct engagement politically more difficult for both governments. Read this ACERE statement
ACERE Action Alert–Urge your Members of Congress to Uphold Congressional War Powers & Oppose Intervention in Cuba |
The Cuba War Powers Resolution has been reintroduced in both the House (Velazquez and Meeks) and Senate (Kaine, Schiff, and Gallego) to prevent any U.S. military action against Cuba without explicit congressional authorization. Given the latest navy and intelligence maneuvers and continuing threats against Cuba by the Trump administration, including the possibility of military intervention, ACERE believes that Congress must urgently use its constitutionally designated authority to stop any possible military actions and to prevent any further assaults against Cuba’s sovereignty. Moreover, the de-facto oil blockade imposed since January constitutes an act of war, and has provoked an acute humanitarian crisis that is causing civilian deaths. TAKE ACTION NOW by clicking here below to tell your members of Congress to support these legislative measures that have been introduced to prevent military escalation. Take Action Now and Distribute Widely. |
US-Cuba Policy News
The views and opinions expressed by authors are their own and articles do not necessarily reflect the views or positions of ACERE.
U.S. businessman says talked shop with Raúl Castro’s grandson — Barron’s (AFP), May 29
A U.S. businessman and Republican congressional candidate, Vic Mellor, told AFP that he met in Havana with Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro, the grandson of former Cuban leader Raúl Castro, to discuss potential business opportunities and Cuba’s economic future. Mellor said Rodríguez Castro supports greater economic engagement with the United States and believes business cooperation would be important for Cuba’s prosperity, particularly if U.S. sanctions are eventually eased. The meeting took place amid a period of unusually active U.S.-Cuba contacts, which may indicate that opportunities for negotiation remain open even as sanctions and political pressure deepen the island’s economic crisis. https://www.barrons.com/news/us-businessman-says-talked-shop-with-raul-castro-s-grandson-b940a566
U.S. general meets Cuban military officials at edge of Guantanamo Bay — Reuters, May 29
Despite the heightened tensions, U.S. Southern Command chief General Francis Donovan met Cuban military senior officials near Guantanamo Bay Naval Base to discuss operational security at Guantanamo perimeter. This first high-level U.S.–Cuban military meeting in years demonstrates that security cooperation and crisis-management channels remain active despite increasingly hostile rhetoric from the Trump Administration and Cuban officials warning that a US military action could cause mass casualties. Maintaining military-to-military communication reduces the risk of miscalculation and potential conflict during a period of heightened tensions. https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/us-general-meets-cuban-military-officials-edge-guantanamo-bay-2026-05-29/
U.S. raises threat of military action against Cuba — Al Jazeera, May 22
The Trump administration has shifted toward openly linking Cuba policy to national-security concerns and raising the possibility of coercive measures beyond sanctions. Statements from President Trump and Secretary Rubio describing Cuba as a security threat led to widespread concern about possible military action. Cuban officials condemned the remarks, while international observers viewed them as one of the sharpest escalations in rhetoric in decades. The threat of military action increases uncertainty, discourages investment, and heightens fears that the country’s severe economic hardships could be compounded by confrontation. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/5/22/us-raises-threat-of-military-action-against-cuba
Rubio: likelihood of negotiated agreement with Cuba ‘not high’— Reuters, May 21
Secretary of State Marco Rubio signaled that Washington sees little prospect for a diplomatic breakthrough under Cuba’s current leadership, reinforcing a strategy centered on pressure rather than engagement. The address by Secretary Rubio diminished expectations for sanctions relief and contributes to uncertainty among Cubans hoping for improved economic conditions through normalization. https://www.politico.com/newsletters/national-security-daily/2026/04/23/great-expectations-little-change-in-havana-00889272
Supreme Court permits lawsuit over U.S. assets seized by Cuba in 1960— The New York Times, May 21
The Supreme Court ruled in favor of the Havana Docks Corporation as it seeks compensation from Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. for docking its cruise ships in Havana during the Obama-era thaw in relations between the countries. Havana Docks had sued under a provision of the Helms-Burton Act that had been waived by successive Democratic and Republican administrations but was activated under the presidencies of both Trump and Biden, which allows lawsuits against third parties for “trafficking” in assets expropriated during the Cuban Revolution. The Court’s decision strengthens the legal foundation of claims arising from property nationalized after the Cuban Revolution and reinforces the reach of the Helms-Burton framework. The ruling may further discourage foreign investment and commercial ties, indirectly affecting employment and economic recovery prospects. https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/21/us/politics/supreme-court-cuba-cruises-oil.html
Sherritt agrees to sell stake in Cuba mining business to company linked to former Trump adviser — Associated Press, May 20
Part of Washington’s effort to tighten pressure on foreign companies that help sustain Cuba’s economy, particularly in strategic sectors such as mining and energy, Canadian mining company Sherritt International decided to leave a joint venture in Cuba. Threats against key investors such as Sherritt risk worsening Cuba’s access to hard currency at a time of acute economic hardship. https://apnews.com/article/sherritt-cuba-canada-trump-sanctions-d2bd6d9a4188e6b81725c0c8a21a533a
U.S. charges Raúl Castro with murder as Trump escalates pressure on Cuba— Reuters, May 20
The Trump administration formally charged former Cuban leader Raúl Castro in connection with the 1996 shootdown of aircraft operated by Cuban exile groups. This was one of the most consequential legal actions ever taken by Washington against a former Cuban head of state and dramatically escalated tensions. The planned charges against former leader Raúl Castro mark a significant escalation in U.S. policy by targeting the Cuban leadership through the criminal justice system rather than solely through sanctions. The Cuban President calls the indictment a ‘political maneuver’ to justify a military action against Cuba. https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/us-expected-unveil-criminal-charges-against-cubas-raul-castro-2026-05-20
U.S. targets Cuban political, military leaders with new sanctions — Reuters, May 18
Sanctions against 11 senior Cuban public and military officials and three Cuban entities signaled an intention to increase pressure on the Cuban government. While aimed at decision-makers, such measures often contribute to broader economic isolation that affects the Cuban population through reduced access to key services, and basic resources. The executive order enables secondary sanctions on foreign entities dealing with sanctioned Cuban entities and individuals, dealing a heavy blow to the Cuban economy. https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/us-targets-cuban-political-military-leaders-with-new-sanctions-2026-05-18/
C.I.A. chief visits Cuba as Trump urges sweeping changes — Reuters, May 14
A rare visit by CIA Director John Ratcliffe to Cuba delivered a message that Washington would engage only if Havana undertook major political and economic changes. The trip suggested simultaneous pressure and limited diplomatic outreach, reflecting a dual-track policy of pressure and limited engagement. At times when Cuba is running out of fuel as a result of the U.S. oil blockade, talks focused on economic stability, intelligence and security cooperation. The Cuban government confirmed the meeting and defended that Cuba poses no threat to U.S. security, and urged for bilateral law enforcement cooperation. https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/us-government-plane-spotted-havanas-international-airport-2026-05-14/
Trump promises U.S.-Cuba talks but gives no details — Reuters, May 12
President Trump said Cuba was seeking help and that talks would occur. The statement indicated that Washington was willing to explore discussions with Havana while maintaining a hardline posture. For the Cuban people, any talks could potentially open avenues for humanitarian assistance or de-escalation, although the broader sanctions framework remained unchanged. https://www.reuters.com/world/
Senate Republicans warn Trump against Cuba military attack — The Hill, May 12
Revealing concerns within the president’s own party about the risks of further escalation toward Cuba, including military options, a growing number of Republican lawmakers are expressing their opposition to a military operation against Cuba. Such caution could help preserve space for diplomacy and reduce the likelihood of policies that would further destabilize conditions on the island. https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/5873176-senate-republicans-caution-trump-cuba/
Trump signs order to tighten Cuba sanctions, targeting foreign banks, companies— Miami Herald, May 1
President Donald Trump issued Executive Order 14404 on May 1, creating a new sanctions framework targeting Cuban officials and entities and expanding penalties beyond the traditional embargo structure. Analysts described it as the biggest sanctions expansion in years. This measure will heavily limit the island’s access to fuel, trade, investment, and humanitarian support. https://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/americas/cuba/article315604522.html
News from Cuba
The views and opinions expressed by authors are their own and articles do not necessarily reflect the views or positions of ACERE.
Water shortages worsen across Cuba as oil supplies dwindle — Associated Press, May 29
This AP report provided some of the clearest evidence of how the oil blockade is affecting Cubans’ daily life by affecting essential public services, including water distribution. Nearly three million Cubans are facing water-service disruptions because pumping systems, maintenance equipment, and treatment infrastructure lacked fuel. Firsthand accounts from residents coping with days without reliable water access underscore how U.S. Cuba policy is exacerbating hardships for ordinary Cuban citizens. https://apnews.com/article/cuba-water-shortages-oil-fuel-us-blockade-4cffcda6aa913ef5e4540b91b1568e3b
Cuba sees higher risk of US military aggression as talks stall — Reuters, May 28
The Cuban government is increasingly viewing U.S. policy as moving beyond economic pressure toward potential military coercion. Senior Cuban officials argued that sanctions, the fuel blockade, and legal actions against Castro had increased the danger of confrontation. This perception strengthens hardline positions on both sides and creates additional anxiety for Cubans already coping with severe shortages and uncertainty. https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/cuba-sees-higher-risk-us-military-aggression-talks-stall-2026-05-28/
Out of Gas, Cubans cook with charcoal and wood to survive — The New York Times, May 25
The article highlights the collapse of key elements of Cuba’s energy infrastructure and the resulting social and economic disruptions. It reinforces arguments that any future U.S. policy toward Cuba must consider humanitarian consequences alongside political objectives. https://www.nytimes.com/2026/
Cuban political prisoner released amid high-stakes U.S. negotiations — USA Today, May 14
Sissi Abascal Zamora, a Cuban opposition activist who had been imprisoned for nearly five years for public disorder, disrespect and attack during the July 11, 2021 anti-government protests was released on May 14. The release suggests that human-rights issues remain an important component of U.S.-Cuba discussions and may be one area where limited progress is possible. The Cuban government has released thousands of prisoners since December, which can ease tensions and demonstrate that dialogue can produce concrete results. https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2026/05/14/cuban-political-prisoner-released-negotiations/90083487007/
Protests flare across Havana as power cuts deepen amid U.S. blockade — Reuters, May 14
The severity of Cuba’s fuel crisis and the impact of U.S. maximum pressure measures aimed at collapsing the Cuban economy has reached unsustainable levels for daily life. All realms of life and industries, such as transportation, water pumping, water, food and medicine distribution, agriculture, electricity generation, and access to basic goods and services have been affected severely. Extremely long blackouts even in Havana—up to 22 hours per day in some areas— have resulted in protests where people express their frustration and demand electricity. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/cuba-has-run-out-diesel-fuel-oil-amid-us-oil-blockade-minister-says-2026-05-14
Cuba mulls US offer of $100 million in aid but wary of Trump’s motives, blockade — Reuters, May 14
Washington’s proposed a $100 million aid package to be distributed by the Church. Cuban officials said they would consider the aid if it complied with international humanitarian norms. Some have questioned whether humanitarian assistance could offset the effects of the fuel blockade and expanded sanctions. https://www.reuters.com/legal/government/cuba-mulls-us-offer-100-million-aid-wary-trumps-motives-blockade-2026-05-14/
U.N. experts warn U.S. fuel blockade puts Cubans’ human rights at risk — Reuters, May 7
U.N. experts warned about the humanitarian consequences of the U.S. fuel blockade, limiting access to food, health care, education, water, and sanitation for the Cuban population. They argued that it amounts to “energy starvation” and policies should be weighed in terms of human rights rather than geopolitics. The warning brings international human-rights scrutiny to U.S. policy towards Cuba. https://www.reuters.com/legal/government/un-experts-warn-us-fuel-blockade-cuba-puts-human-rights-risk-2026-05-07
U.S. sanctions likely led to increase in infant mortality rate in Cuba, report finds — Los Angeles Times, May 1
U.S. policy towards Cuba is likely contributing to worsening health outcomes, particularly among vulnerable populations. These findings could intensify debates in Washington over whether current Cuba policy is advancing U.S. objectives while imposing unacceptable humanitarian costs. https://www.latimes.com/delos/story/2026-05-01/us-sanctions-cuba-increase-infant-mortality-rate-new-report-oil-blockade-trump-biden
Recommended Media
The views and opinions expressed by authors are their own and articles do not necessarily reflect the views or positions of ACERE.
The Pretext behind the Trump Administration labeling Cuba a State Sponsor of Terrorism —Just Security, May 29
Jason M. Blazakis, former (2008-2018) Director of the Counterterrorism Finance and Designations Office, Bureau of Counterterrorism, U.S. Department of State, argues that the Trump administration’s justification for returning Cuba to the State Sponsors of Terrorism list is based more on political considerations than on evidence of terrorist activity. The designation underpins many of the toughest U.S. sanctions on Cuba, affecting the island’s access to international financial transactions and investment, as well as tourism, and thereby worsening economic hardships for ordinary Cubans. https://www.justsecurity.org/140246/trump-administration-cuba-terrorism/
Is the United States on the verge of military intervention in Cuba?— Foreign Policy, May 22
Former Dean of the American University School of Public Affairs and Cuba expert William M. LeoGrande, examines escalating rhetoric, sanctions, and legal actions against Cuban leaders that have raised concerns about a possible military confrontation. LeoGrande highlights the risks of abandoning diplomatic engagement, and warns of the potentially devastating consequences that military conflict or heightened tensions would have for the Cuban people. https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/05/22/cuba-war-trump-united-states-castro-indictment
Cuba: Declassified records on the Brothers to the Rescue shootdown— National Security Archive, May 19
Compiled by researchers at the National Security Archive, the publication presents newly declassified U.S. government documents related to Cuba’s 1996 shootdown of Brothers to the Rescue aircraft. The records are significant because they provide historical context for one of the key events shaping U.S.-Cuba relations and continue to influence contemporary debates over sanctions, accountability, and bilateral engagement.https://nsarchive.gwu.edu/briefing-book/cuba/2026-05-19/cuba-declassified-records-brothers-rescue-shootdown
How the May 1 Executive Order expands U.S. sanctions on Cuba— CEDA, May 13
Prepared by the Center for Engagement and Development of the Americas (CEDA), the analysis explains the legal and practical implications of President Trump’s May 1 Executive Order expanding sanctions on Cuba. It details how the new measures could further restrict Cuba’s access to fuel, trade, and financial transactions, with direct consequences for the daily lives of Cuban citizens. https://www.weareceda.org/ceda-publications/2026/how-the-may-1-executive-order-expands-us-sanctions-on-cuba
What we saw in Cuba shocked us— NYT, May 11
Written by Congresswoman Pramila Jayapal and Congressmen Jonathan L. Jackson, who recently visited Cuba, the opinion essay describes the severity of the island’s economic collapse, shortages, blackouts, and deteriorating living conditions. They call attention to the humanitarian impact of U.S. Cuba policy, and raise questions about whether current U.S. policies are helping to achieve political goals or exacerbating suffering among the Cuban people. https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/11/opinion/cuba-us-blockade.html
Tweet of the Month
Congressman Chuy García on X: |
“In Cuba the Trump administration is following the same playbook they used for Venezuela: impose sanctions, starve the population, and manufacture the pretext for regime change. “We must oppose another illegal war before it starts.” |
