US-Cuba Policy Highlights
Issue No. 25 - March 2026
In this newsletter:
In this newsletter:
ACERE Policy Insight
Domestic and International Reaction to U.S. Oil Blockade of Cuba
- ACERE Activities
ACERE Statement on the Introduction of Legislations to Prevent an Unconstitutional War in Cuba – Read the ACERE Statement
- ACERE Statement Condemning the Trump Administration’s Escalation towards Military Intervention in Cuba – Read the ACERE Statement
- ACERE Action Alert– Urge your Member of Congress to Stand Up for Peace – Please Act Now and share widely.
- US-Cuba Policy News
Trump says ‘Cuba is next’ in speech touting US military successes
Cuba opens talks with U.S. as oil blockade takes a toll
Top Vatican Official Says Holy See Took ‘Necessary Steps’ to Promote Dialogue After Meetings With U.S. and Cuban Officials
UN says in talks with US on humanitarian fuel supplies for Cuba
Cuban Patients Are Dying Because of U.S. Blockade, Doctors Say
How the U.S. oil blockade is taking a high toll on everyday Cubans
Who are the players deciding Cuba’s future amid talks with US?
Mexico president says will uphold Cuban doctor agreement
Democrats file war powers resolution to prevent Trump from attacking Cuba without approval
Democratic lawmakers seek to block funds for military action in Cuba
Judge probes Trump administration on ‘unwritten’ deal for Mexico to accept Cubans
U.S. to Allow Russian Oil Tanker to Reach Cuba, Breaking Blockade
- News from Cuba
- Cuba to release 51 prisoners during Holy Week following talks with Holy See
- Cuba will allow nationals living abroad to invest in and own businesses on the island, economic czar tells NBC News
- Cuba restores power after 29-hour blackout amid US oil blockade
- Cuba rejects ‘shameless’ U.S. Embassy request to bring in fuel
- Cuba: Protesters attack ruling party’s office amid blackouts
- International convoy delivers tons of aid to Cuba amid crisis
- Cuba’s deputy foreign minister says its military is preparing for possible ‘aggression’ from the U.S.
- Silvio Rodriguez Silvio Rodríguez says he will take up arms if the US attacks Cuba: ‘I demand my AKM, if they come’
- Exclusive: Cuba Is Prepared to Discuss Compensation to Americans Who Lost Property in the 1959 Revolution
- Recommended Media
Trump’s Eye Is Already on Cuba
Why Trump Should Be Careful What He Wishes for in Cuba
Trump Isn’t Ready for What He’s Starting in Cuba
Vatican quietly steps up role in US-Cuba talks
More Americans disapprove than approve of the U.S. blocking oil shipments to Cuba and the U.S. embargo
CNN report on the Nuestra America Convoy
Cuba is not alone, deputy FM says as US threats grow
- Tweet of the Month
- Christiane Amanpour quoting Ambassador Jeffrey DeLaurentis on X
ACERE Policy Insight
Domestic and International Reaction to U.S. Oil Blockade of Cuba
The de facto oil blockade of Cuba established by the Trump administration that threatens countries not to supply Cuba with fuel has been received with condemnation and alarm over the humanitarian fallout, legality questions, and the geopolitical risks of this escalation. A YouGov poll conducted in late February found that 46% of Americans disapprove the U.S. blocking oil shipments to Cuba while only 28% approve it. In March, public opinion has been shaped by media coverage of the impact of the oil blockade on civilians, and particularly its deadly implications for health services. Democratic lawmakers have introduced bills warning that the oil blockade would constitute hostilities within the meaning of the War Powers Resolution.
The international community has condemned the oil blockade and expressed concern over the humanitarian crisis that is being produced by these coercive measures. Opposition to the oil blockade has been expressed not only by Russia and China, but also by U.S. partners and neighboring states. The Mexican government publicly defended its right to supply oil to Cuba and framed any such assistance in humanitarian terms. By late March 2026, Mexico had sent more than 3,100 tons of humanitarian aid to Cuba, including food and basic supplies delivered aboard multiple Mexican Navy vessels. Canada announced in late February a $8 million CAD emergency aid package to Cuba describing it as humanitarian support for Cubans facing worsening shortages. Likewise, Caribbean governments closely aligned with the United States on many regional matters did not endorse the blockade’s effects. Officials from St. Vincent and the Grenadines stated that CARICOM leaders had collectively expressed concern about Cuba’s deteriorating fuel and energy crisis, and affirmed a regional commitment to provide support.
European responses have brought the discussion from geopolitics to humanitarian obligation and the legality of secondary pressure on third parties. The European Commission recently announced an additional $2 million EUR in humanitarian aid for Cuba, explicitly citing worsening conditions on the island. Earlier in March, members of the European Parliament also raised questions about how extraterritorial sanctions and over-compliance by European firms might be worsening Cuba’s access to essential goods and energy infrastructure, indicating concern not only about Cuba’s internal crisis but also about the implications for European economic sovereignty.
The domestic and international reaction to the oil blockade has been amplified by the symbolism of the international solidarity convoy that reached Cuba in late March, delivering over 20 tons of medical supplies, food, and solar panels directly to medical facilities and communities. With around five hundred activists, trade unionists, and political figures from over 30 countries, including the U.S. –and with outspoken support from well-known figures like the Swedish activist Greta Thunberg— the “Nuestra America” convoy functioned as a visible rebuke to the blockade by turning Cuba’s fuel shortage into a transnational humanitarian cause. It demonstrated that, outside official state channels, the blockade is generating a broader coalition of critics who see the crisis as morally and politically indefensible, and with extraterritorial reach that undermines other countries’ sovereignty. The convoy helped recast Cuba from a failed state into a victim of an act of war by a reckless U.S. government and a humanitarian emergency, making it harder for Washington to sustain an image of pressure without responsibility.
The most significant breach of the oil blockade was the delivery of roughly 700,000 barrels of crude by the Russian tanker Anatoly Kolodkin in late March, the first oil shipment received by Cuba in well over three months. The voyage, accompanied by the Russian Navy until reaching international waters, came after a Hong Kong-flagged vessel carrying Russian-origin fuel, the Sea Horse, had reportedly diverted away from Cuba. But once the Anatoly Kolodkin was “allowed” by President Trump to reach Cuba, perception about the oil blockade has changed—it is imposing severe pain but not total isolation, and humanitarian exceptions could create openings Washington does not fully control. Despite constituting a brief respite for Cuba, it seems to have opened the door to other oil shipments from Russia and other countries. While some have read this episode as proof that the oil blockade was strategically brittle—severe enough to create a crisis, but porous enough to invite challenge and selective defiance—others have seen it as a test of U.S. credibility, Russian resolve, and third-country risk tolerance, and others as evidence of broad pushback or even progress on diplomatic talks.
In short, many governments, including several key U.S. allies, are softening or offsetting the effects of the oil blockade, even if they have stopped short of directly denouncing it. At the same time, domestic and international public opinion has condemned it and found practical ways to provide the Cuban people with much-needed relief. Rather than delivering a clean strategic win to the Trump administration, the oil blockade is increasingly viewed as an illegal collective punishment measure that constitutes an act of war and an affront to other countries’ sovereignty, and is producing a severe humanitarian fallout that risks destabilizing a close neighbor with spillover consequences for the U.S. and the region.
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ACERE Activities
The Alliance for Cuba Engagement and Respect (ACERE) welcomes three Democratic-led bills introduced by Senators Kaine (VA), Gallego (AZ) and Schiff (CA), Congresswoman Velázquez (NY), and representatives Meeks (NY) and Jayapal (WA) in March 2026 to block any U.S. military action against Cuba without congressional approval, which reinforce Congress’s sole constitutional authority to declare war. While the war powers resolution introduced in the Senate is privileged and should move on an expedited timeline for a vote on the floor, it is not clear if these bills will advance. Nevertheless, it is imperative to prevent an unnecessary and dangerous conflict so close to our southern border. Congress has both the legal authority and the democratic responsibility to prevent an unnecessary and potentially disastrous conflict with one of our closest neighbors, and these legislations are important steps in that direction. – Read this ACERE statement
ACERE cautions that recent public statements and actions by the Trump administration regarding Cuba have sharply escalated tensions in the U.S.-Cuba relationship and raised serious concerns about the risk of direct military confrontation. Despite being engaged in diplomatic conversations with the Cuban government, President Trump’s and Secretary Rubio’s harshest statements towards Cuba seem to reflect more than a rhetorical brinkmanship. The Trump administration’s current Cuba approach of resource deprivation, economic strangulation and regime change is backed by escalating military signaling in the Caribbean. Developments in Venezuela and Iran suggest that the risk of a military intervention in Cuba is very real. – Read this ACERE statement.
ACERE Action Alert– Urge your Member of Congress to Stand Up for Peace |
Given the latest threats against Cuba by the Trump administration, including the possibility of military intervention, ACERE believes that Congress must use its constitutionally designated authority to detain any possible military actions and to prevent any further assaults against Cuba’s sovereignty. Take action here to tell your members of Congress to support international law, diplomacy and peace. Please Act Now and share widely. |
US-Cuba Policy News
The views and opinions expressed by authors are their own and articles do not necessarily reflect the views or positions of ACERE.
Trump says ‘Cuba is next’ in speech touting US military successes
President Trump said “Cuba is next” during a March 27 speech in Miami while boasting about recent U.S. military actions in Venezuela and Iran, though he did not clearly explain what action he meant and then tried to downplay the remark. The Trump administration had already opened talks with Cuban officials, but these comments added to fears of possible military escalation as Cuba faces even deeper economic and energy crises after the imposition of the oil blockade in late January.
Cuba opens talks with U.S. as oil blockade takes a toll
Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel said Havana had opened talks with the United States as a U.S. oil blockade deepened Cuba’s economic and energy crisis, leaving the island with no fuel imports for three months and widespread blackouts. He stressed Cuba wants any negotiations to proceed with respect for its sovereignty and political system, while the Trump administration signaled that a deal could be reached if Cuban leaders were willing to negotiate.
Top Vatican Official Says Holy See Took ‘Necessary Steps’ to Promote Dialogue After Meetings With U.S. and Cuban Officials
Cardinal Pietro Parolin, the Vatican secretary of state, said the Holy See has taken “the necessary steps” to promote dialogue on Cuba after separate meetings with U.S. and Cuban officials. The Vatican seeks to encourage a negotiated solution to the island’s crisis, and to help prevent further escalation over Cuba. The Vatican, which has quietly mediated between the U.S. and Cuba in the past, is emphasizing its concern with promoting negotiation and avoiding a deeper humanitarian or political crisis.
UN says in talks with US on humanitarian fuel supplies for Cuba
The United Nations has discussed with the Trump administration to secure fuel deliveries to Cuba for humanitarian purposes, especially to support emergency relief work, health centers, and vulnerable populations. It says the U.S. oil blockade had already severely disrupted daily life and even limited the UN’s own ability to operate on the island because of fuel shortages.
https://www.jamaicaobserver.com/2026/03/09/un-says-talks-us-humanitarian-fuel-supplies-cuba/
Cuban Patients Are Dying Because of U.S. Blockade, Doctors Say
Cuba’s health system is being pushed toward collapse by the U.S. oil blockade, with hospitals struggling to function because of fuel shortages, power outages, and disruptions to transport and medical services. The fuel squeeze is affecting basic care, and daily hospital operations across the island. Since non-urgent procedures have been postponed, over 96 thousand people are waiting for surgeries, and over 30 thousand children for vaccination. Cuban doctors endure burnout and though choices on scarce resources. The medical crisis is part of a broader humanitarian emergency.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/26/world/americas/cubas-health-system-us-oil-blockade.html
How the U.S. oil blockade is taking a high toll on everyday Cubans
CNN Havana correspondent observes that the U.S. oil blockade has pushed ordinary Cubans into a severe humanitarian crisis, with prolonged blackouts, spoiled food, collapsing transportation, and garbage piling up because basic public services can no longer function normally. Daily life in Cuba has become far harder than before, with many people struggling simply to find fuel and enough to get through the day.
Who are the players deciding Cuba’s future amid talks with US?
Cuba’s future is being shaped by a small circle of powerful figures on both sides of the talks, especially Donald Trump and Marco Rubio in Washington, and Raul Castro and Miguel Diaz-Canel in Havana. It also highlights rising behind-the-scenes players such as Prime Minister Manuel Marrero, Foreign Trade Minister Oscar Perez-Oliva Fraga, and Raul Castro’s grandson Raul Guillermo Rodriguez Castro, all of whom could influence any eventual deal or political transition.
Mexico president says will uphold Cuban doctor agreement
Mexico’s President said the country will continue hosting Cuban doctors despite U.S. pressure and other nations ending similar agreements, arguing the program is vital for providing care in underserved rural areas. The Trump Administration criticizes the program as exploitative, but Mexico defends it as legal and beneficial, while it also remains an important source of income for Cuba that serves to fund its universal health care system.
Democrats file war powers resolution to prevent Trump from attacking Cuba without approval
Democratic lawmakers introduced a War Powers Resolution aimed at preventing military action against Cuba without congressional approval, responding to concerns about President Trump’s aggressive rhetoric and actions toward the island. Supporters say the measure is needed to reassert Congress’s constitutional authority over war decisions, while critics—mostly Republicans—argue the president needs flexibility to conduct foreign policy and military operations.
https://thehill.com/policy/defense/5782836-war-powers-resolution-cuba/
Judge probes Trump administration on ‘unwritten’ deal for Mexico to accept Cubans
A U.S. federal judge is questioning the Trump administration over claims it deported about 6,000 Cubans to Mexico under an “unwritten” agreement, demanding details and raising concerns the deal may have been secret and lacked oversight. The issue arose in a legal case involving a detained Cuban migrant, with the judge criticizing the government for relying on an informal arrangement after ending a previous formal deportation agreement and emphasizing the need for judicial accountability.
U.S. to Allow Russian Oil Tanker to Reach Cuba, Breaking Blockade
A Russian oil tanker carrying a large supply of crude drew international attention as it headed toward Cuba, potentially testing the United States’ efforts to enforce a fuel blockade on the island. The situation highlights Cuba’s deepening energy crisis and the broader geopolitical tensions between the U.S., Russia, and Cuba, with the tanker seen as both a possible lifeline for Cuba and a challenge to U.S. policy
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/29/world/americas/cuba-russian-oil-tanlker.html
News from Cuba
The views and opinions expressed by authors are their own and articles do not necessarily reflect the views or positions of ACERE.
Cuba to release 51 prisoners during Holy Week following talks with Holy See
The Vatican News article reports that Cuba agreed to release 51 prisoners during Holy Week after recent talks with the Holy See, presenting the move as a humanitarian gesture tied to longstanding Vatican-Cuba dialogue. It frames the release as both a sign of goodwill and part of a broader tradition of prisoner pardons connected to religious occasions and quiet Vatican diplomacy.
Cuba will allow nationals living abroad to invest in and own businesses on the island, economic czar tells NBC News
Cuba announced it will allow nationals living abroad—including Cuban Americans and other exiles—to invest in and own businesses on the island, opening the door to both small and large-scale investments as part of efforts to stabilize its struggling economy. The government also said it aims to attract U.S. companies while noting that existing U.S. sanctions still block many potential investments under the long-standing embargo.
Cuba partially restores power as President Díaz-Canel vows ‘unyielding resistance’ to U.S. oil blockade
Cuba is facing a severe energy and humanitarian crisis, with widespread blackouts and fuel shortages largely driven by U.S. sanctions that have cut off oil supplies. The Cuba blackout was a result of US oil blockade and amid a structural crisis to a great extent resulting from decades of embargo that severely limits Cuba’s access to technology and finance to renew its energy system.
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/18/cuba-crisis-trump-energy-power-blackout-fuel-havana.html
Cuba rejects ‘shameless’ U.S. Embassy request to bring in fuel
The Cuban government refused a U.S. Embassy request to import diesel fuel for its generators, calling it “shameless” while Washington continues to enforce an oil blockade that has worsened the island’s energy and economic crisis. The fuel shortage has become so severe that the embassy may have to reduce staff, underscoring how the broader energy emergency is now disrupting not only Cuban daily life but also foreign diplomatic operations in Havana.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2026/03/20/us-embassy-havana-cuba-fuel-blackout/
Cuba: Protesters attack ruling party’s office amid blackouts
Protesters in Cuba attacked a local office of the ruling Communist Party amid widespread electricity blackouts and economic hardship, marking one of the most visible public expressions of dissent in years as anger over power outages and shortages has grown. The rare unrest, driven by frustration with daily life under prolonged blackouts, included vandalism at the party building and led authorities to make several arrests.
https://www.dw.com/en/cuba-protesters-attack-ruling-partys-office-amid-blackouts/a-76363513
International convoy delivers tons of aid to Cuba amid crisis
An international activist coalition, the “Nuestra America” Convoy, delivered 14 tons of food, medicine, solar panels, and bicycles to Cuba from Mexico, adding to 6 more tons of aid flown in earlier, as the island’s humanitarian and energy crisis deepened. The article presents the convoy as both practical relief and a political act of solidarity, with organizers from more than 30 countries saying it was only a first step in challenging the effects of U.S. sanctions and fuel restrictions.
Cuba’s deputy foreign minister says its military is preparing for possible ‘aggression’ from the U.S.
Cuba’s deputy foreign minister, Carlos Fernández de Cossio, said the Cuban military is preparing for the possibility of U.S. military aggression amid escalating threats from President Trump and Secretary Rubio, while insisting Havana still hopes to avoid conflict. He also blamed the U.S. oil blockade for Cuba’s worsening blackouts and economic crisis, and made clear that Cuba’s political system and leadership are not negotiable in any talks with Washington.
Silvio Rodríguez says he will take up arms if the US attacks Cuba: ‘I demand my AKM, if they come’
The renowned Cuban singer-songwriter Silvio Rodriguez vowed he would take up arms if the United States attacked Cuba, writing on his blog, “I demand my AKM, if they come,” in response to escalating U.S.-Cuba tensions and warnings from Havana about possible aggression. The piece presents his remarks as both a symbolic act of defiance and part of a broader climate of fear and nationalist resistance as Cuba faces blackouts, fuel shortages, and mounting pressure from Washington.
Exclusive: Cuba Is Prepared to Discuss Compensation to Americans Who Lost Property in the 1959 Revolution
Cuba is now willing to negotiate a “lump sum” payment to compensate Americans whose property was seized after the 1959 revolution, something it previously refused to do with the U.S. However, the offer is conditional on a broader deal—likely including lifting U.S. sanctions and allowing investment—and Cuba also wants compensation for damages it says were caused by the U.S. embargo, making any agreement complex and uncertain.
Recommended Media
The views and opinions expressed by authors are their own and articles do not necessarily reflect the views or positions of ACERE.
Trump’s Eye Is Already on Cuba
The Atlantic article says Donald Trump is pursuing a plan to force major change in Cuba—potentially even regime change—by exploiting the country’s severe economic crisis and vulnerability. The strategy combines heavy pressure (like cutting off oil and economic lifelines) with behind-the-scenes talks and possible legal or political moves, aiming either to install more cooperative leadership or reshape Cuba’s system in a way favorable to the U.S., though the exact end goal remains uncertain
https://www.theatlantic.com/national-security/2026/03/trump-plan-cuba/686497/
Why Trump Should Be Careful What He Wishes for in Cuba
The Foreign Policy opinion piece by Guillaume Long and Alexander Main, at the Center for Economic and Policy Research, argues that a U.S.-driven effort to destabilize or militarily pressure Cuba could trigger state collapse, with consequences including internal unrest, a mass migration wave, and expanded trafficking routes across the Florida Straits. Trying to force regime change in Havana could produce a humanitarian and regional security crisis that would ultimately harm both Cuba and the United States.
https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/03/10/trump-cuba-regime-change-state-collapse/
Trump Isn’t Ready for What He’s Starting in Cuba
The New York Times opinion piece by Cuba experts Christopher Sabatini and Katrin Hansing argues that after military action in Iran, the idea of U.S. war with Cuba no longer feels unthinkable and should be treated as a real danger rather than political theater. Its central warning is that escalating threats, regime-change rhetoric, and the normalization of force could push Washington into a reckless conflict with Cuba that would be catastrophic for both Cubans and the United States.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/12/opinion/cuba-america-war-trump-iran.html
Vatican quietly steps up role in US-Cuba talks
A Responsible Statecraft analysis by Quincy Institute research associate Lee Schlenker and ACERE Policy Director highlights that quiet diplomatic engagement between the U.S. and Cuba — including informal talks, humanitarian fuel sales to the Cuban private sector, and Vatican-linked mediation — suggests both sides may be exploring a negotiated approach to ease tensions and avert crisis and conflict. It notes that Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s rhetoric has softened from explicit regime-change demands toward discussions of gradual economic reform, and that Cuba has signaled openness to more formal dialogue, even while broader U.S. policy remains inconsistent and heavily influenced by sanctions and internal divisions. The piece portrays these developments as tentative confidence-building moves amid deepening economic pressure, rather than a settled diplomatic strategy.
https://responsiblestatecraft.org/us-cuba-talks/
More Americans disapprove than approve of the U.S. blocking oil shipments to Cuba and the U.S. embargo’
A YouGov poll conducted among 1,094 U.S. adult citizens on February 25 – 27, 2026, found that nearly half (46%) of Americans somewhat or strongly disapprove of the U.S.’s current policy of blocking oil shipments to Cuba from other countries. Only about one-quarter (28%) approve. Most Democrats (74%) disapprove — only 8% approve — and Independents are more likely to disapprove than approve (44% vs. 20%). On the other hand, a majority (59%) of Republicans approve and only 19% disapprove.
CNN report on the Nuestra America Convoy
Global Health Partners executive director, Bob Schwartz, talking with CNN about the recently delivered aid to Cuba as part of the Nuestra America Convoy
https://www.instagram.com/reel/DWPe6GMgQj9/
Cuba is not alone, deputy FM says as US threats grow
Cuba’s deputy foreign minister says the island nation will resist US pressure as sanctions deepen, blackouts continue, and tensions escalate.
Tweet of the Month
Christiane Amanpour quoting Ambassador Jeffrey DeLaurentis on X: |
“We’re looking at a deployment of the Venezuelan model [in Cuba],” says Jeffrey DeLaurentis, who was America’s first ambassador to Cuba in 55 years. “I don’t really like the notion of using humanitarian suffering as a political tool for change. But this is where we are.” |
