President Trump Is Being Poorly Advised to Conduct a Military Intervention in Cuba
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
January 13, 2026
The Alliance for Cuba Engagement and Respect (ACERE) warns that some political sectors are openly trying to misguide President Trump by trying to convince him to authorize military intervention in Cuba. There are real risks that President Trump faces by believing that he will be “the one” who brings about Cuba’s collapse.
Immediately after the abduction and illegal extradition of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro to the United States, Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that Cuban leaders should be “worried,” saying that the U.S. has blockaded all Venezuelan oil destined for Cuba from reaching its shores. Secretary Rubio has stated that Maduro’s forced removal from power would have a devastating impact on Cuba, including delivering the last and ultimate blow to their crippled economy because of its dependency on Venezuela’s oil. However, experts have estimated that Venezuelan oil represents less than 35% of oil imported by Cuba; and that there are other major oil exporters that can compensate for a further decline in Venezuelan oil.¹
For many years, Secretary Rubio and other Cuban American politicians have attempted to blame the Cuban government for the survival of the Venezuelan government, and have called for military intervention. Rubio has recently defended that Venezuela had been “colonized,” “intervened,” and “held hostage” by the Cuban government, ignoring the relations of cooperation that exist between both countries. At the same time that it is argued that Cuba is a “failed state” and that “there is no embargo,” it is simultaneously claimed that Cuba is a “bad example” for other countries in the region.
Secretary Rubio’s growing influence in President Trump foreign policy decisions is evident. On Sunday, President Trump warned that there will be “no more oil or money going to Cuba” and that the Cuban government should “make a deal before it is too late.” Many experts have warned that this is an indication that Cuba is the next military target of the Trump Administration.
Recently reported CIA assessments find that the current economic suffering might not lead to a government collapse.² But the political sectors that Secretary Rubio represents are certain that this time Cuba will fall; like they were many times before. This ill-informed belief is what has kept us spending well over $25–50 million of taxpayer dollars per year for many decades.³
Decisions based on faulty intelligence and the exaggerated influence of institutional actors with vested interests have dragged the United States into endless conflicts and wars—from Vietnam to Iraq and Afghanistan—with incalculable costs for our nation. The risk of military confrontation is worrying given the fact that there appears to be very little bilateral dialogue remaining. Then-Senator Rubio and other Cuban-American Congress people—due to their personal interests resulting from decades-old grievances—have worked diligently to eliminate any space for bilateral conversations.
While a worsening of the economic situation in Cuba could result in social protests, there are no indications that a significant portion of the Cuban population would support U.S. intervention.⁴ Experts have argued that a collapse of the Cuban government is contrary to U.S. national interests, and would cause a massive migration and other security threats to the U.S.⁵ The Cuban opposition is much weaker than that of Venezuela,⁶ so regime change in Cuba will undoubtedly require military presence for a long period of time. A military confrontation with Cuba will undermine our counter-narcotic efforts given that Cuban governments for many decades have been among the best partners in the Caribbean in terms of cooperation to fight drug and human trafficking.⁷
Military intervention in Cuba will cause an enormous tear in the fabric of Cuban civil society; cut essential services on which the majority of the Cuban population depend; devastate the growing private sector’s ability to function and to import goods; and result in an enormous wave of uncontrollable irregular migration to our southern borders.
ACERE reiterates that Cuba’s future belongs to the Cuban people, and it is time for the United States to normalize relations with Cuba if it is to strengthen ties with the region. Real and lasting change in Cuba can only be built through negotiation, cooperation, and respect—not military operations that endanger our own soldiers, citizens, and national interests.
Sources
1“Mexico risks Donald Trump’s ire with Cuban oil shipments”;
https://www.ft.com/content/
“Why is Mexico suddenly Cuba’s biggest oil supplier?”
https://mexiconewsdaily.com/
2“Exclusive: CIA highlighted Cuba’s grim economy but gave mixed view on government falling” (Reuters), January 10, 2026.
3“U.S. Government Democracy Projects in Cuba” (American University).
https://www.american.edu/
4“Trump team puts a target on Cuba, with threats and oil blockade” (Washington Post), January 6, 2026.
https://www.washingtonpost.
5Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, Quincy Brief #78 — “U.S.–Cuban Relations: A Realist Case for Pragmatic Engagement,” William M. LeoGrande & Geoff Thale, June 25, 2025.
https://quincyinst.org/
6“After Venezuela, Trump Says Cuba Is ‘Ready to Fall’” (The New York Times), January 5, 2026.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/
7American University Cuba Archive, “Counter-Narcotics Cooperation Documents.”
https://www.american.edu/
